Pokhara, 28 March| The growing global energy crisis and the potential disruption in the supply of crude oil and gas from Gulf countries have raised serious concerns for import-dependent nations like Nepal. Experts warn that if the supply of oil and gas is interrupted even for two weeks, the consequences will go far beyond fuel shortages, directly affecting the availability of essential medicines and life-saving drugs. In such a scenario, people may face greater risks from lack of medicines than from hunger itself.
The impact of the global oil crisis does not end at long queues at fuel stations. Its ripple effects extend from household kitchens to hospital pharmacies. Modern medicine is heavily dependent on petrochemicals, and any disruption in oil supply directly hampers pharmaceutical production. For a country like Nepal, which relies heavily on imported medicines, such disruptions can quickly lead to shortages.
Studies indicate that nearly 90 percent of allopathic medicines used worldwide are derived from petrochemical sources. The manufacturing process of these medicines involves critical raw materials such as benzene, toluene, and xylene, which are derived from naphtha during crude oil refining. These chemicals are essential building blocks in the pharmaceutical industry. For instance, phenol, which is produced from petroleum derivatives, is a key ingredient in widely used painkillers like paracetamol and ibuprofen. Similarly, metformin, a life-saving drug for diabetes patients, is largely dependent on petrochemical inputs. Antibiotics and complex cancer treatments also rely on advanced organic chemicals derived from petroleum.
In addition to the chemical composition of medicines, their packaging and delivery systems are also dependent on petroleum products. Syringes, IV bags, and plastic containers used for storing medicines are all made from petrochemical-based materials. Therefore, disruptions in oil supply chains signal not only an energy crisis but also an impending healthcare crisis.
The global pharmaceutical supply chain is highly interconnected and complex. India is known as the “pharmacy of the world,” supplying a significant portion of generic medicines globally. However, India itself depends on China for approximately 70 to 80 percent of its Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API). China’s chemical industries, in turn, rely heavily on oil and gas imports, much of which passes through critical maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Any disruption in this route can trigger a cascading effect. If oil shipments are halted, Chinese chemical factories may reduce or stop production, leading to a shortage of APIs in India. Consequently, Indian pharmaceutical companies would struggle to maintain production levels, ultimately affecting countries like Nepal that depend on Indian medicine imports.
In Nepal, the pharmaceutical sector is largely import-driven. Around 60 to 70 percent of medicines available in the country are imported from India. Domestic pharmaceutical companies operate on a limited scale and rely on imported raw materials. Typically, Nepal maintains a medicine stock sufficient for only two to three months. If global supply chains are disrupted, shortages could become visible within weeks.
The immediate impact of such shortages would be felt in hospitals, particularly in intensive care units and emergency departments. Life-saving drugs, anesthesia for surgeries, and critical antibiotics could become scarce. Patients suffering from chronic conditions such as kidney and heart diseases would face severe challenges due to the unavailability of essential medications. Dialysis fluids, blood thinners, and other critical supplies may become difficult to obtain.
The situation could be even more severe in rural areas, where healthcare infrastructure is already limited. While urban centers might find alternative solutions temporarily, remote health posts could run out of even basic medicines like paracetamol. Rising fuel costs would further complicate transportation, increasing both delays and prices.
Economically, the crisis would drive up the cost of medicines, making them less accessible to lower-income populations. This could widen social inequalities and place additional strain on public health systems. Experts caution that such a scenario would test the resilience of Nepal’s healthcare infrastructure.
Politically, the timing of such a global crisis presents a significant challenge for new leadership. Managing external dependencies while ensuring domestic stability requires strategic planning. Strengthening diplomatic ties with neighboring countries to secure uninterrupted medicine supplies, establishing direct import channels for raw materials, and investing in domestic pharmaceutical production are seen as critical steps.
There is also an urgent need to develop strategic reserves of essential medicines. Maintaining a buffer stock capable of meeting at least six months of demand could provide a crucial safety net during global disruptions. Coordination among government agencies, healthcare institutions, and supply chain stakeholders will be essential to manage such crises effectively.
Experts emphasize that in the 21st century, security is no longer confined to borders. Food security and health security are closely tied to energy resources. From fertilizers used in agriculture to medicines used in hospitals, petrochemicals play a central role. Therefore, an energy crisis inevitably translates into broader economic and social challenges.
For Nepal, this situation underscores the importance of long-term strategies aimed at reducing dependency on external sources. Investing in local industries, diversifying supply chains, and enhancing storage capacities are critical measures to ensure resilience. Without such efforts, even minor disruptions in global markets could have severe consequences for the country’s healthcare system.
In conclusion, the oil crisis is not merely an energy issue but a significant public health concern. It highlights the fragile nature of global supply chains and the urgent need for preparedness. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, ensuring the availability of essential medicines must be treated as a national priority.
