Pokhara, 19 June — The disputed region of Kashmir has been identified as one of the world’s most critical escalation points by the Global Peace Index 2025, highlighting the growing volatility in South Asia and the fragile peace between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan. The report, published by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), warns that the region faces a high risk of renewed conflict, with potential consequences extending far beyond the borders of Kashmir.
The index, which ranks 163 countries on peacefulness, placed Pakistan at 144 with a ‘low state of peace’ and India at 115 under the ‘medium state of peace’ category. These rankings reflect deepening regional instability and underline the continuing threat posed by unresolved territorial disputes and non-state actors operating in volatile zones.
The report emphasizes that the Kashmir region remains one of the most dangerous flashpoints globally, particularly following a deadly four-day conflict between India and Pakistan from May 7 to 10, 2025. This latest flare-up was the most intense in several years, reigniting fears of a broader military escalation. While the likelihood of a nuclear exchange is considered low, the potential for a full-scale conventional war remains significant and deeply concerning, especially given the involvement of extremist elements capable of provoking large-scale confrontations.
The IEP report also points to a broader decline in regional peace across South Asia, which it identifies as the second least peaceful region globally. It attributes this to a range of issues, including government repression in Bangladesh, rising civil unrest, and intensifying internal and cross-border tensions in Pakistan. The report notes a 0.36 percent deterioration in global peacefulness, marking the thirteenth such decline in the past 17 years.
Beyond the India-Pakistan dynamic, the report warns of possible internal unrest fueled by communal tensions and insurgent groups. In India, anti-Muslim violence could escalate in tandem with border conflicts, while in Pakistan, groups like the Balochistan separatists and Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan may exploit any India-related crisis to advance their own agendas.
Despite these challenges, external diplomatic pressure has, in the past, played a critical role in preventing escalation. However, the report concludes that unless significant measures are taken to address root causes and foster sustained dialogue, Kashmir will remain a high-risk zone with the potential to destabilize regional and global peace.
