Pokhara, 19 February | Kathmandu, the capital district with the highest number of constituencies in the country at ten, has always been a testing ground for new political experiments in past elections and this time too analysts claim that surprising results could emerge once again. In this densely populated urban area where voters constantly seek freshness and are highly educated the political atmosphere has heated up significantly with candidates campaigning vigorously from every alley, chowk and household. Due to the high population density candidates find themselves rushing to cover as many toles as possible while tea shops hotels and eateries remain packed with discussions on politics.
Looking back at previous elections in 2074 the voters here gave a chance to Bibeksheel Sajha Party showing openness to alternatives. Then in 2079 the dissatisfaction with traditional parties shifted largely towards the newly formed Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) which captured significant votes. In the 2079 House of Representatives election Nepali Congress won five out of ten seats Rastriya Swatantra Party secured four and CPN-UML managed only one. Interestingly some seats won by RSP were previously held by UML in 2074. UML lost three seats compared to its performance after the merger of UML and Maoist Centre in 2074 when the unified party had claimed four seats in the Kathmandu valley while Congress took six but later lost one to RSP in 2079.
The split between Madhav Nepal and Pushpa Kamal Dahal had visible impact in 2079. For instance in Kathmandu-5 where UML Vice-Chairman Ishwar Pokharel had won in 2074 Congress’s Pradeep Paudel took the seat this time. Similarly in Kathmandu-2 Madhav Nepal’s victory in 2074 went to RSP’s Sobita Gautam in 2079. Overall UML’s presence has been shrinking steadily from 2074 to 2079 and this election too it appears difficult for UML candidates to win many seats in Kathmandu. RSP seems to have captured much of UML’s urban strength while Congress is attempting to regain momentum through leadership changes. The Nepal Communist Party formed by Madhav Nepal and Prachanda is unlikely to receive much affection in the valley this time and Maoist Centre has never won a seat in Kathmandu under its own symbol in either 2074 or 2079.
This time NC leader Suman Sayami is contesting from Kathmandu-8 aiming for victory but faces strong challenge from RSP’s Biraj Bhakta Shrestha. In 2074 UML’s Jeevaram Shrestha had won here while in 2079 Shrestha won and Sayami came second. In the broader valley context in 2074 UML had claimed nine seats but that was under an electoral understanding between UML and Maoist Centre in the then Nepal Communist Party. Out of 15 valley seats UML dominated but in 2079 its tally dropped drastically to just two seats failing to maintain its stature. The emergence of independent candidate Balen Shah in the local elections who won Kathmandu Metropolitan with a massive 61767 votes inspired RSP Chairman Ravi Lamichhane to leave television journalism and form his party.
In the 2079 local polls Balen’s victory boosted anti-establishment sentiment and RSP performed strongly in proportional votes across the valley. Among RSP’s seven direct wins in 2079 four came from Kathmandu one from Lalitpur and two from Chitwan. RSP is now targeting eight seats in Kathmandu Congress aims for seven or eight while UML hopes for four or five though locals like Santosh Fago from Anamnagar say it will be much harder for UML than for Congress or RSP. Besides RSP another new force Ujyalo Nepal Party led by Kulman Ghising is gaining noticeable support in Kathmandu with Ghising himself contesting from Kathmandu-3 where he is counted among probable winners. Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) too enjoys optimism particularly in Kathmandu-1 where its prominent faces could pose serious competition.
Congress President Gagan Thapa’s decision to shift from Kathmandu to Madhesh has led many to predict fewer seats for Congress. RPP claims it will secure Kathmandu-1 comfortably. Kathmandu voters are described as dynamic and active not silent so many expect results to favour new forces again. Local businessman Chinakaji Shrestha from Dilli Bazar believes RSP and Ujyalo Nepal will receive good votes this time as voters who once supported UML Congress Maoist and Nepal Workers Peasants Party are now leaning towards new options. He notes growing inclination towards RPP as well saying Kathmandu voters always seek change and dislike stability in old parties.
Similarly Namrata Bik a businesswoman in Thamel observes that while some still favour Congress due to Gagan’s leadership widespread frustration with old parties might push votes towards Kulman Ravi and similar new figures. Many customers in her shop insist on voting for individuals rather than parties reflecting a person-centric trend. In constituency-wise analysis Kathmandu-1 traditionally Congress stronghold saw Prakash Man Singh narrowly defeat RPP’s Rabindra Mishra in 2079 after a closer margin than in 2074. With Prakash Man not fielded this time Mishra stands strong chance especially with Congress candidate Prabal Thapa lacking buzz while RSP’s Ranju Darshana carrying pregnancy during campaign draws sympathy and wave votes.
In Kathmandu-2 Sobita Gautam’s exit has created triangular contest among RSP’s Sunil Kc UML’s Maniram Phuyal and Congress’s Kabir Sharma. Kathmandu-3 appears favourable for Kulman Ghising with locals tired of old faces though RSP’s Rajunath Pandey carries Balen’s prestige pressure. Kathmandu-4 pits Congress’s Sachin Timilsina defending Gagan’s legacy against UML’s Rajan Bhatta and RSP’s Pukar Bam in a tight youth-centric race. Kathmandu-5 features rematch between Pradeep Paudel and Ishwar Pokharel with RPP’s Kamal Thapa RSP’s Sasmita Pokharel and actress Nisha Adhikari cutting votes. Kathmandu-6 seems safe for RSP’s Shishir Khanal given his clean image.
Kathmandu-7 challenges RSP’s Ganesh Parajuli from UML and NC candidates in indigenous-heavy area. Kathmandu-8 pits RSP’s Biraj Bhakta against NC’s Suman Sayami where Biraj’s grassroots connect makes him favourite. Kathmandu-9 sees RSP’s heavy-weight DP Aryal challenged by UML’s Ajay Kranti Shakya and NC’s Nanumaya Bastola. Finally Kathmandu-10 Congress stronghold remains with Himal Karki backed by former winner Rajendra Kc facing UML’s Binod Shrestha and RSP’s Pradeep Bist. Overall Kathmandu’s electorate appears poised for another shift towards newer forces blending hope frustration and demand for change in this crucial election.
